Let’s get things started with some real talk: This has been the weirdest offseason leading into one of the most unpredictable and unknown football teams I can remember trying to figure out at the University of Tennessee.
You know that scene from the classic film Robin Hood: Men in Tights where the blind butler (Blinkin) has been assigned to be the night watch guard at the fortress gate? Robin Hood rides up to find Blinkin standing at the gate with his blind glasses on..
“Blinkin? What are you doing??” Robin asks.
“Guessing???” Blinkin responds, “I GUESS there’s no one coming??”.
That’s exactly how I feel trying to make any predictions about the 2025 Tennessee Volunteers.
I GUESS we could still win 10 games and make another playoff run??
I GUESS the QB play couldn’t be any worse than last year??
I GUESS the WR room cleaning house was a good idea??
Honest to goodness, I don’t know. The 2025 Volunteers could absolutely win 10 games again this year. They could just as easily be an 8-win team in what could feel more like a rebuilding year that we didn’t plan to have and open the door for all kinds of problems.
Neither outcome would be surprising to me. And that’s why we play the games!
Allow me to break things down to the best of my abilities and tell you the things I KNOW vs the things I THINK. And then let’s all buckle up, put on our safety helmets, pop a Xanax, and see how this thing plays out.
Defense
Let’s start with the good news first. Tennessee’s defense should be pretty darn good for the third year in a row.
If you had told me that four years into Josh Heupel’s tenure, 2 of his winning seasons would have be driven almost exclusively by the defensive side of the ball? “Poppycock!” I would have exclaimed. Or “Horsefeathers!” or you know something like that.
The point is that Heupel has never been known or shown any reason to think that defense was going to be a strength, but here we are. Going into Year 5, defense should be the leader of this team for the 3rd time.
This is a good development. We know that a Heupel offense will eventually get back to Heupel standards. If/when the offense and defense meet in the middle, watch out.
Defensive Line
For a unit that lost its general room leader (Omari Thomas) as well as first AND second round picks (James Pearce Jr, Omar Norman Lott), the Defensive Line is in ridiculously good shape heading into 2025. They are big. They are deep. They are extremely well-coached. And they will be ready to wreak havoc in a much more similar was as last year than I think people are giving them credit for.
Bryson Eason coming back as a redshirt senior was as big as any transfer portal signing the Vols could’ve landed. He will fit into Omari Thomas’ role seamlessly. This is a prove-it year for Eason as he’ll be looking for a shot at the NFL. Leading the best Defensive Line is college football would be an excellent place to start negotiations.
Other veterans such as Dominic Bailey, Tyre West, Caleb Herring, and Jaxson Moi will be looking to take their game to the next level as well. Moi should be a reliable force in the middle and West in particular has shown flashes of being a nightmare for O-Lines in multiple ways. Bailey has perhaps been the most consistent player on the line since Heupel arrived and I expect nothing less in ’25.
In addition to solid veteran leadership on this line, there are plenty of young studs who are ready to make their mark as the next big thing. Freshman Ethan Utley has had tons of good press and will certainly get an opportunity to make an impact early. Jordan Ross showed flashes of being an absolute freak last year. He’ll get more opportunities to be a regular on the line. Isaiah Campbell, Christian Gass, Carson Gentle, and Tyree Weathersby are all oozing with talent and promise.
Daevin Hobbs has legit NFL potential, but some injury roadblocks have stalled his development. This is a big year for the big fella to prove he’s on the right track. Don’t forget that we had to fight off Alabama AND Georgia for his recruitment. If he gets healthy and consistent, it could be a huge payoff.
And we haven’t even mentioned perhaps the best player on the entire defense, Joshua Josephs. More thoughts on Josephs in a few minutes.
Expect this Defensive Line to show off their depth and talent with multiple lineup combinations and wrinkles. A healthy mix of steady leadership, young, ambitious talent, and potential stars should make the loss of 3 NFL players nothing but a quick reset.
Linebackers
I may be more excited about the potential of our Linebacker Room than any other room on the team this year. Nothing gets you juiced for a football team better than high level linebacker play. When I think of the great Tennessee defenses of my past, I think of guys like Al Wilson, Kevin Burnett, and Jerod Mayo first. It’s been a long time since the Vols have had a good, deep, and reliable linebacker unit.
That being said, the 2025 linebackers have a TON to prove on the field before I’m ready to crown them as the best linebackers since “x”. But by golly they have potential and potential is the theme of the year so let’s run with it!
Arion Carter has been The Man In Waiting for a couple years now. He’s a Junior. He’s fast, talented, and instinctive. He could very well be the next great linebacker in the rich tradition of great Tennessee backers.
His sidekick Jeremiah Telander is no slouch either. A speedy, hard-hitting maniac, Telander is made to clean up anything that might slip through the hungry defensive line.
If these two stay healthy, look for linebackers to be leaders and playmakers on this defense. If one or both go down for any length of time, I will be less enthused, but feel pretty good about Edwin Spillman, Jordan Burns, and Ben Bolton getting some action. Spillman in particular has the look of someone who will be a major contributor this season.
Regardless, linebackers should not be a weakness this year as they have to this point in the Heupel tenure.
Secondary
This is where things start to get tricky and I go back to Robin Hood… “I GUESS the secondary will be pretty good this year??” On paper, I really like this group! They’re deep. They have a similar mix of veteran/youth/athleticism that the D Line has. The floor for Tennessee’s secondary (in my opinion) should be: “Perfectly Fine”.
Here’s the thing – there’s a thin line between “Perfectly Fine” and “Really Really Good”, and in between them are two giant walking question marks.
Their names are Jermod McCoy and Boo Carter.
Rickey Gibson, Andre Turrentine, Jalen McMurray, Edrees Farooq, Colton Hood should make for a perfectly fine secondary. Maybe even a very good one! Add in Senior William Wright, a potential comeback for Jourdan Thomas (I was VERY high on Jourdan before his injury last season and even expected him to be a starter), and more young talent in Kaleb Beasley.. the Secondary has something going on.
With all that said, this group could go from good to GREAT with McCoy and Carter healthy, engaged, and productive.
But that’s the thing, right? I have no earthly idea what to expect from those two.
Jermod McCoy is probably the best and most talented cover corner in the entire SEC, but he’s only 7 months removed from a torn ACL. Even with medical and sports science advances over the last 15 years and reports that he did participate in individual drills during Fall Camp, I’m hard-pressed to think that he’s going to waltz in and be back to his old self any time soon. Add the fact that a true cover corner is one of the most sought after and valuable positions in the NFL, it would be foolish for him to rush back to the field and jeopardize what could be a long and lucrative professional career – and I wouldn’t blame him one bit. For the record, I hope I’m wrong here and overthinking this. Rumors abound that he has targeted the Georgia game as a return date. If he does come back and picks up where he left off at full strength, the floor of the Secondary (and the entire defense) will lift considerably.
On the other hand, Boo Carter is a fascinating case. We’re talking about a guy who flashed absolute star potential at the aptly named STAR position last season. His fingerprints were all over the field on defense and special teams and he quickly became a fan favorite who’s natural charisma would spark excitement and energy from the crowd every time his name was called. Frankly – to quote the G.O.A.T – his ceiling was the roof.
Then comes the off-season. Rumors of skipping NIL responsibilities (i.e. autograph signings, appearances at certain functions, etc.). No-showing voluntary team workouts and practices. Threats of holdouts for more money and the specter of the transfer portal. All these things are Cardinal Sins when it comes to locker room cohesion. Honestly? I can’t think of hardly anything worse for building trust with your coaches and teammates than skipping workouts and practices, even if they’re voluntary. The team clearly turned on Carter this offseason. Player-led team leadership demanded that Carter make amends or be kicked off the team.
Now, wholistically, this is a good thing. This is the type of player leadership we’ve been looking for since the Fulmer years. This is the kind of leadership we had back in the day where you better beat your opponents tail or else Al Wilson would beat yours. No one is bigger than the Power T – a fact that Nico found out the hard way back in January.
But this also sucks. It’s not an exaggeration that Boo Carter was primed to be a cult hero on Rocky Top with the biggest play potential out of the secondary since Eric Berry himself. Hear me when I say this: THIS DEFENSE IS BETTER WITH BOO CARTER ON THE FIELD.
But again, no one is bigger than the Power T and locker room chemistry matters more than you can possibly imagine if you’ve never been inside one. If the team is not bought in on Carter’s presence, then this will not work.
I don’t know what to expect here. Heupel has said all the things like “He’s done all the things we’ve asked of him” and “we expect him to play on Saturday”. But with the damage that’s been done, this is something I’ll have to believe when I see.
Best case scenario: Boo does the work, earns back trust, gets on the field and plays to his potential. If this is the way it goes, the potential for explosive defensive plays is astronomically higher.
Worst case scenario: This thing festers. Boo is visibly unhappy. Players take sides and defensive chemistry suffers, leading to breakdowns and media drama.
I’m so ready to root for Boo and see him stay and succeed at Tennessee. But Heupel needs to tread lightly here. If this becomes any sort of problem at all after Saturday kickoff, Heupel should shut Boo down and allow him to transfer. At that point all I can say is Hood, McMurray, Farooq, be ready for the opportunity.
I’ll give you my official prediction towards the end of this post.
Offense
Let’s switch gears now and talk offense. Heupel’s specialty, right? Should be more predictable and easier to know exactly what we’re getting, right?
I guess??
Offensive Line
This is the position group where I’m expecting a total about face. I say this in the most polite way that I can: the offensive line stunk in pass protection for most of last season. Lance Heard battled injuries all year and it took him half the season to get into playing shape. Some of our entrenched starters just didn’t play to the level needed to succeed in the SEC. Everyone else was young or not even on campus yet.
This year tells a different story. Suddenly, I see depth, size, and talent! But there are caveats to consider.
Lance Heard should be ready to play at full potential on Week 1 instead of Week 7. BUT, is he ready to be a consistent anchor for a good Line? Is he ready to make good, consistent plays week by week instead of flashes in the pan? This is a money year for Heard where he will be auditioning for the League. He will not have the option to turn it on mid-season again.
The new guy David Sanders, might be an actual grizzly bear. A day 1 starter as a freshman on the offensive line?? That means we have something. BUT, listen carefully now, he’s a freshman. He won’t be perfect. He will make freshman mistakes. How often and costly will they be? The answer to that may determine the success or failure of this line.
We have two new potential starters at Center, which is widely considered the most important player in the Heupel offense. Both have more size and raw ability than Cooper Mays who has been the only starter we’ve had in the Heupel era. BUT, Cooper Mays is the only starter we’ve had at Center in the Heupel era!! We have no idea what to expect from new, young guys here. Can they keep tempo? Can they identify formations? Can they snap the ball mistake free? Who will even be the starter: Sam Pendleton (my pick) or William Satterwhite??
There are multiple big, young, interchangeable freshman who will need to grow quickly and be ready to contribute this year. BUT, we haven’t actually seen them play! We know their potential, we see their size, but we really have no idea what to expect until cleats are in the ground.
There is big potential on the offensive line. On paper, they could legitimately be one of the best lines in the SEC. Realistically though? The unknowns are just as big. Mentally, do they have a true grasp of this offense in it’s up-tempo glory? When mid-season injuries start to rear, will the young guns be ready? With a new QB and overhauled receiver room, the offensive line will be more important than ever. They will determine the success/failure of this offense and there’s no way to know what to expect until the Syracuse game *pops another Xanax*
Running Backs/Tight Ends
The offensive line is stressing me out so let’s talk about 2 positions that I’m sure of and that’s Running Backs and Tight Ends.
You can quote me on this one: I love the RBs and TEs on this team. But guess what? That’s right, they’re all unproven! I GUESS they’re going to be good?? There’s no reason for them bad. Heupel’s offense is most friendly to RBs and TEs because of speed, space, and 1 on 1 matchups. Everyone will have a chance to eat.
There are no Dylan Sampson’s on the 2025 squad. What I mean by that is nobody is set to be a workhorse back getting the majority of touches and threatening to break yardage records.
Desean Bishop did emerge last season as a reliable back oozing with potential and I expect him to be the starter. He is twitchy with some wiggle in a similar (maybe better) way as Jabari Small.
The most impressive specimen in the backfield is Peyton Lewis. He has the physical gifts, raw tools, and highest ceiling and may very well be the best back and leading rusher by season’s end. But, as is the theme of this breakdown, there are unknowns. Lewis has yet to show that his mental game has caught up to his physical game. He will need to find his identity as a runner and show that he can make the correct reads, cuts, and blocks to be a true producer. If he puts it together, he could special.
Star Thomas also has a ton of potential, and his name writes its own NIL check. If he hits a couple home runs early in the season, he’ll be a fan favorite before you can say “Constantine Ritzman”.
The Tight End room boasts likely the two most proven guys on the entire offense in Miles Kitselman and Ethan Davis. Kitselman should remain solid, smart, and a locker room leader. I’m very excited about Ethan Davis. Davis has been good with flashes of greatness since he arrived, but he’s also shown that he’s young and he hasn’t quite bought in to adding the blocking aspect of being a true tight end to his game. He needs to take that next step this year.
With the offense trying to evolve vs coverage defenses and with the WR room being a gigantic question mark, I’m expecting to see a heavy dose of two tight end formations. Ethan Davis’s versatility as a pass catcher and route runner should see him motion out to the slot quite often (think Dallas Clark in Indianapolis back in the day). I think this could result in his production skyrocketing and is something I’ll be specifically watching for.
The addition of two freshmen studs – DaSaahn Brame and Jack Van Dorselaer – add promising and intriguing depth to the room. Expect to see both on the field in certain situations this year.
Quarterbacks/Wide Receivers
Now we’ve arrived at the juicy part. The mother of all riddles. Who’s gonna throw and catch??
We lost our starting QB (He who shall not be named). We lost 4 of our 5 main rotational receivers (Bru McCoy, Squirrel White, Dont’e Thornton, Chas Nimrod).
This good news is that the group that is gone, quite frankly, wasn’t very good last year. At all.
Our leading receiver in yardage was Dont’e Thornton. He only had 661 yards on 26 catches. That’s TWO CATCHES PER GAME. That was our LEADING receiver.
As for Nico, his play was pedestrian at best. Basically all SEC wins in 2024 came in spite of him and was carried by the running game and defense. We went three straight games being shut out of the entire first half.
These things should be unacceptable by Heupel’s offensive standards.
So this leads me to the original point: I GUESS the QBs and WRs can’t get any worse??
Yes, the WRs struggled last year with some dropped balls, bad route running, and getting separation. But Heupel still schemed a LOT of guys open. After rewatching each game during the offseason, it’s clear that the QB left a ton of yards and points on the field with slow processing, bad reads, and overthrows. This is the second straight QB to have these problems in Heupel’s offense.
Joey Aguilar is up and he has one job: hit the open receiver. It will be there. You can talk to me all you want about offensive coordinators, defenses “catching up” to Heupel’s scheme, the offense is “too simple”, blah, blah. You’ll be wrong on all points, but you can talk about it if you want.
The fact is, if you go back and watch game film, you will find instance after instance in every single game over the last 2 seasons of a WR running buck naked open to the endzone, only for the QB to make the wrong read or throw the ball into the grass.
It has nothing to do with play-calling – it has nothing to do with the defense doing anything special – it has everything to do with the QB not understanding the pre-snap principles of the offense or simply making a poor throw.
I have to say, I feel really confident in the trio of Mike Matthews, Braylon Staley, and Chris Brazzell to produce. Have also heard great things about transfer Amari Jefferson and freshman Travis Smith Jr. From a pure athletic and skill standpoint, this is an upgrade room from last year.
But the big, hairy elephant that remains in the room for almost the entire team is that I just don’t KNOW. We haven’t seen them play! Could they also struggle with drops and separation? Sure! There’s no way to know until Syracuse. What I do know is that Heupel will scheme guys open. And when that happens, all I ask is that Joey Aguilar is ready.
And guess what? I don’t know if Aguilar is ready either! We haven’t seen him play at this level. I’ll tell you this, everything I’m hearing is that he’s a true gunslinger. Meaning that I don’t expect him to hold onto the ball too long, and I don’t expect him to rely on check downs and easy throws. I think that if something is dialed up, we’re gonna see Joey take the shot. Whether he hits his shots remains to be seen. Whether he throws to the other team.. remains to be seen. My stance is that if Joey can connect on half of the explosive plays that Heupel calls for him, we will see an offense that gets closer to 2022 levels than 2024, and if that happens, this is a 10-win team and a true playoff contender. If he hits less or struggles considerably, this could be a long season.
Quickfire Thoughts
Who’s not getting talked about enough?
Josh Josephs.
There was a time in the early 2023 season when smart football people thought that Josh Josephs was a better pass rushing prospect than James Pearce Jr. It was Pearce’s breakout season that moved Josephs to the shadows (rightfully so, Pearce turned out to be a true freak). But Josh Joshephs is back. He’s a highly experienced senior and he’s looking to get paid. I’ve heard a lot of Vol media talking about the D Line taking a small step back this year because they don’t have a true pass rusher like Pearce and I’m here to tell you, it’s gonna be Josephs. I’m expecting his first year out of Pearce’s shadow to be his best yet. And the exciting part? He’s being slept on by everyone. He should get plenty of 1 on 1 matchups and opportunities to show out. Look for Josh Josephs to be a game breaker on third down situations.
Who’s getting talked about exactly like they should?
David Sanders.
On the flip side, there’s been tons of chatter about David Sanders and I think it’s absolutely warranted. Offensive line is notoriously a developmental position. Meaning that it’s extremely difficult for young freshmen to make an immediate impact. You have to put on weight, grow physically and mentally, and earn coaches trust that you deserve to be out there. It usually takes until late sophomore or early junior years to get there. For a true freshman to be an expected starter on the line and to have the expectations that he has mean that he’s the real deal. Expect some early hiccups as he adjust to SEC game speed, but by mid-season (barring injury) David Sanders should be a standout clearing running lanes and protecting QBs.
Who has the highest potential for a breakout year?
Braylon Staley.
I love, love, LOVE Staley’s high school film. He’s not a physical specimen by any means, but the vibe I pick up is that he’s a gamer. I get the same spine tingle with Staley as I did with Dylan Sampson as a freshman in 2022. I think Mike Matthews will be the clear number one receiver this season, but I have a feeling that Staley can be an explosive number 2. There’s an opportunity here for Matthews/Staley to become the new version of Meachem/Swain 2006 or Stallworth/Washington 2001. It’s just a spine tingle right now, it should be clear after Week 1.
Who has the highest potential for a disappointing year?
The obvious answer here is Boo Carter but this is one of those things we just need to let play out. Me personally? I think the Boo Carter thing will not improve and he will not be a part of the team by mid-season. Any scenario that ends up better than that should be considered a blessing. That being said, if he does get his act together, I will embrace him wholeheartedly.
A less obvious answer to this question could be Daevin Hobbs. Hobbs is unbelievably gifted and the opportunity is there for him to finally be a defensive anchor and make an SEC sized impact. Unfortunately, his body has betrayed him from day one on campus and he cannot stay healthy for extended periods of time. He’s already slated to miss the first few games of this season. As a junior, he’s running out of time. I would love to see it come together for him so he can finally show us all what he’s made of, but at this point, it’s one of those things where I’ll have to believe it when I see it.
Thoughts on the Quarterback Competition
Confession time: I actually thought that Jake Merklinger might win the starting job during fall camp. It was a golden opportunity for Merk, having been in the program for a full year. Time and chemistry means something in the Heupel offense. It’s so important as a Heupel QB to be on the same page with your receivers and understand the concepts that Coach Heup is trying to accomplish on a play-by-play basis.
Word is that Aguilar didn’t come in and win the job so much as Merklinger just didn’t play well enough to take it from the veteran. Since naming Aguilar the official Week 1 starter, everyone has sort of changed their tune a little bit. That Joey has command of the offense and has been consistent. But I’m having some pause because we really didn’t hear that all fall camp. Granted, nobody outside the program has seen it with their own eyes because Heupel keeps scrimmages and practices closed and tight – this is purely conjecture.
This competition with so many unknowns brings me back to the QB competition in the year 2000. Tennessee had just come off an entire decade of Heath Shuler > Peyton Manning > Tee Martin. Multiple SEC Championships, a National Title, a Heisman robbery. The 2000 season saw a QB who had been waiting a year behind Tee Martin and 2 true freshmen.
Joey Matthews was the sophomore in waiting. He had experience being in the program for 2 years and got the starting nod for Week 1 (as I’m writing this I just realized the irony of this name also being Joey). People were genuinely excited about Matthews. He was a local kid, a good-sized pocket QB with some athleticism and a big arm who had a lot of people talking.
They were also talking about the presumed number 2, A.J. Suggs. He was an early enrollee freshman who most considered to be more talented with the higher ceiling.
The third QB was a younger freshman who hadn’t been with the program yet and was mostly an afterthought.
Fulmer decided to give both Matthews and Suggs opportunities in the first game before deciding on a true starter. It was an immediate disaster. Both QBs struggled back and forth and neither could find consistency. Fulmer finally had to bench Joey Matthews and see if Suggs could play through the struggles. He couldn’t. The Vols stumbled to a 2-3 record through the first 5 games and with the Alabama rivalry looming next, Fulmer made the tough decision: give his young, scrawny third option freshman a chance to start. You know him as the “Ice Man” Casey Clausen.
Clausen would win the next 6 games, lead the Vols to their highest success outside of the 90s, and to this day is the last Tennessee QB to beat Florida in The Swamp (and he did it twice).
Look, I hope that Joey Aguilar takes the reigns and runs with it. I think there’s a good chance that he does. But if he struggles, Heupel needs to be careful and strategic. We have a highly talented freshman third QB on this roster in George MacIntyre. Heupel also has a good team around his QB rooms who is ready to win now – much like the 2000 Vols. Fulmer made a difficult but correct decision to play the young guy who many deemed not ready. It saved the 2000 season and set up 2001 as a year where they darn near won another national championship.
How long will Heupel allow Aguilar’s leash to be? Make it too short, and you could screw up the mindset of your entire QB room. Make it too long, and you could torch an entire season and miss out on what could be a nice 2026 run. I don’t envy Heupel’s predicament this year. But that’s why he gets paid the big bucks, to make the right decision. Handling this year’s QB competition throughout the year may well end up being the defining moment of Heupel’s career at Tennessee. No pressure.
Record Prediction
- Syracuse – Win
- ETSU – Win
- Georgia – Loss
- UAB – Win
- Miss State – Win
- Arkansas – Win
- Alabama – Loss
- Kentucky – Win
- Oklahoma – Win
- NM State – Win
- Florida – Loss
- Vanderbilt – Win
- Final Record – 9-3
So much of this depends on all the unknowns. I feel deep in my soul that Georgia is beatable this year especially getting them at Neyland where Heupel is unbelievably strong. I think we play the Bulldogs hard and keep it close but ultimately get out-talented in a loss.
I do not understand all the crazies predicting Miss St to upset us just because it’s on the road and they’re planning a “white out”. If we lose to Miss St, Heupel will have a LOT to answer for concerning his road woes. To me, the true road test comes in The Swamp where I can never pick us to win until I see it.
Picking Alabama as a loss only because it’s also on the road. Tennessee has slowly been catching up, as the Vols have been growing while the Tide has been regressing (accelerated by the Saban retirement). Right now, these two programs are even rivals with the home team getting the edge. This is an amazing opportunity for Heupel and company to quell the road fears early and get a large monkey off their backs. As with Florida though, I’ll believe it when I see it.
With all the unknowns and uncertainties thrown at Heupel’s program, a 9-3 season should be considered solid work, but will likely lead to us missing the playoff cut ever so slightly. 9-3 should not be considered a failure and should elicit hope for the future with a solid foundation and stacked recruiting classes on the way.
Drop one of those others though, and 8-4 feels a litter different.
Conclusion
The bottom line with everything here is that we just don’t know. There’s plenty of reason to be optimistic, but there’s plenty of reason to let the BVS creep in as well.
I will be certain of nothing until the Syracuse game. By the time Week 1 winds down, things will become more clear – for better or for worse.
I GUESS we’ll be alright??
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